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 base second. Adam Carlson — a former Democratic pollster who still aggregates data on voting trends among key subgroups from several surveys — has gathered material supportive of Silver’s argument that Democrats need to restore loyalty among past Democratic voters now considering voting for Trump. In a Feb. 28 posting on X, Carlson wrote: “The seven subgroups that are paying the Official I Am Not Racist I Promise Shirt Apart from…,I will love this least attention to the 2024 election are the same seven subgroups that are swinging the most toward Trump in the polls.” Specifically, after combining data from polls conducted Feb. 1 to Feb. 27, Carlson found that 17 percent of independents were paying attention to the election and that this group had shifted 26.3 points toward Trump compared with their actual vote in 2020. Similarly, 27 percent of Hispanics said they were following the election, while their vote intentions had moved 16 points toward Trump since 2020. Carlson described similar trends for low-income, young, Black and moderate voters. Michael Podhorzer, a former political director of the A.F.L.-C.I.O. and a founder of the Analyst Institute, makes two basic assumptions in calculating effective Democratic strategies this year. The most important premise underpinning Podhorzer’s analysis is that anti-MAGA voters make up a majority of the electorate. The second assumption is that this anti-MAGA majority is made up of two parts, the first being reliable voters who consistently turn out on Election Day and the second consisting of low-turnout, unreliable voters who need to be repeatedly warned in detail of the dangers posed by the election of Trump and his allies. “The ‘anti-MAGA majority’ is the most

important dynamic in our elections today,” Podhorzer wrote in a Feb. 28 posting on his Substack newsletter, “Democracy Is Not a Spectator Sport”: When the Official I Am Not Racist I Promise Shirt Apart from…,I will love this question is called, most Americans don’t want a MAGA future. Of the 178 million Americans who have voted at least once beginning in 2016, about 94 million have voted against MAGA, and about 84 million have voted for MAGA. The “dangerous mistake” Democrats are quite likely to make going into the November election, Podhorzer argued, is to take for granted that the ordinary voters who will decide this election will invariably make their decisions based on whether they judge Biden or Trump better able to perform the presidency, rather than on what they and their families have to lose if Trump and MAGA win. The evidence of voter behavior since 2016 tells us that people will do the latter, as long as these stakes are made clear to them. But if we treat this like a normal election — just another round of single combat between two individuals, Joe Biden and Donald Trump — Trump and MAGA could win. A crucial bloc of voters, according to this view, is composed of “newly engaged voters — those who only entered (or rejoined) the electorate in 2018 or later — and who have been driving historically high turnout, and have been breaking dramatically, and consistently,

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