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 for Biden and Democrats when the Official If Life Gives You Lemons At Least You Won’t Get Scurvy T-shirt moreover I will buy this stakes have been a MAGA future.” In support of his analysis, Podhorzer pointed to the 2022 midterm elections. Those contests are “best understood as two different elections — one in the key battlegrounds, where voters understood the stakes and turned out in droves to reject MAGA; the other where voters did not understand the stakes and turned out at low levels more typical of a midterm, allowing the predicted Red Wave to occur.” Podhorzer provided data to back up his claim: In 2022, turnout nationwide fell by four points, to 46 percent, compared with 50 percent in 2018 — which was widely perceived as a referendum on Trump. Democrats suffered a net loss of nine House seats in 2022. In the states where Republicans ran MAGA candidates in competitive races for statewide office — Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan — turnout from 2018 to 2022 remained constant at 53 percent, and Democrats gained four House seats. The bottom line: “When people don’t recognize those stakes, they stay home,” which then “leads us to the unacknowledged problem with the anti-MAGA majority dynamic for Democrats,” Podhorzer wrote. “Their majorities in the Electoral College battleground states depend on sustaining ahistorically high turnout and support from people who were not regular voters in 2016.” Not only are these voters “alienated from partisan politics”; they also “lack confidence in Democrats’ governing ability.” At the same time, Podhorzer added, “not only are most voters now not paying attention to Trump’s legal troubles, they know next to nothing about what he’s said on the campaign trail about what he will do if elected again, let alone the very specific and chilling agenda his allies

have assembled in the Official If Life Gives You Lemons At Least You Won’t Get Scurvy T-shirt moreover I will buy this event he wins a second term.” Because so many of the anti-MAGA voters are not enthusiastic about Biden, Podhorzer wrote, Democrats need to make the case that “in November, we are not choosing a leader; we are choosing the nation we will become.” The federal trials that now appear as though they may be deferred until after the election — possibly permanently deferred — may well have persuaded hesitant voters that American constitutional government was on the ballot. Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, argued in an email that in the drive to mobilize low-turnout voters, it is not so important whether Trump goes on trial but whether he is convicted: “It’s not trials but convictions that matter. If Trump is convicted of a criminal felony by a jury, of plotting to overturn or steal the election, that will matter.” Lake added: “A Trump conviction would increase voting among low-turnout Democratic men, and it would come second to abortion in mobilizing low-turnout Democratic women.” In a Dec. 26 Times guest essay, “A Trump Conviction Could Cost Him Enough Voters to Tip the Election,” Lake; Norman

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