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 and with obstructing efforts to retrieve them,” c) that he “has been charged with conspiring to overturn the Official Houston Cougars Basketball Retro Rocket T-shirt and by the same token and results of a presidential election” and d) that he “has been charged with attempting to obstruct the certification of a presidential election.” Of those surveyed, 20 to 25 percent said they did not know, and 20 to 25 percent said they were “not sure” what the charges against Trump were; in other words, nearly half of those surveyed had little or no comprehension of the array of allegations against him. Sign up for the Trump on Trial newsletter. The latest news and analysis on the trials of Donald Trump in New York, Florida, Georgia and Washington, D.C. Get it sent to your inbox. A Jan. 25 to 29 YouGov survey asked a different question: “How much have you heard about” each of the indictments? In this case, independent voters, who will play a large role in determining the outcome of the 2024 election, were far less familiar with the charges than Democrats and Republicans. More than half of Republicans (55.5 percent) and Democrats (50.7 percent) told YouGov they had heard “a lot” about the indictments, compared with 41.7 percent of independents. These poll findings pose interesting challenges for political analysts. While political professionals differ in the details of the strategies they believe Biden should adopt, the Supreme Court decision to postpone adjudication of Trump’s immunity claims is a genuine setback. Nate Silver, the founder of 538, argued that Biden needs to adopt a persuasion strategy to persuade voters who supported Biden in 2020 but now support Trump to return to the Democratic fold. “Democrats usually assume that they win elections” through “turnout rather than persuasion,” Silver wrote in a recent Substack post. “It’s not a crazy proposition, by any means. But it looks like a losing approach for 2024.” As recently

as 2012, according to Silver, putting resources into increasing turnout proved effective in large part because the Official Houston Cougars Basketball Retro Rocket T-shirt and by the same token and overall electorate was decisively more Democratic than Republican, 38 to 32. Since then, Silver wrote, “Democrats have lost their edge on party ID in many polls. In Gallup polling throughout 2023, for instance — in contrast to the Democratic edge in 2012 — the same percentage of Americans (27 percent) identified as Democratic and Republican, with 43 percent identifying as independent.” Recent Gallup polling found that when asked whether they lean to either party, independents now split evenly between voting Democratic and Republican. Silver analyzed details of a recent Times/Siena poll to show “the potential dangers for Democrats of the base-turnout focus”: The poll asked voters who they voted for in 2020 as well as who they plan to vote for in November. This produced a big gap; Biden actually led by 12 points in the recalled 2020 vote, but he trails Trump by 5 points in 2024 voter preferences: 2020 recalled vote (excluding nonvoters): Biden 53 percent, Trump 41 percent. 2024 vote (including leaners): Trump 48 percent, Biden 43 percent. This is, Silver continued, “a bad data point for the White House. In the poll, only 83 percent of voters who say they chose Biden in 2020 plan to vote for him this year, whereas 97 percent who voted for Trump plan to vote for Trump again.” More important, these Biden defectors are not part of the Democratic base, Silver argued: If Biden is retaining only 83 percent of his 2020 vote overall, that implies he’s doing quite poorly with people who voted for him in 2020 but who are not loyal Democratic primary voters. Only about 75 percent of this group say they’ll vote for Biden again. Silver’s conclusion? If they want to maximize their chances of winning in November, Democrats ought to focus on this group of vote-switching swing voters first, and the

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